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As a professional shopkeeper, who hopefully stays out of trouble with the law (through bribes or otherwise), of course your priority will be “how do I make more money?!”. Well, don’t worry, because we’ll go through all the events and how you can use them effectively in order to make more profit. So, here is a general guide of all the events in Probably Stolen to help you in your quest!
There are essentially a few types of events. Most of them show up in the newspaper you receive every morning/on the calendar; you can get hints from people who visit your shop, such as the Shady Customer (whom you do have to pay 50 credits); or quest events based on your reputations with different factions. Newspapers inform you of market events which will affect how the market prices change, depending on what event gets triggered (i.e. Bad Nutrifruit Harvest).
General Guideline
Most events deal with a change in price for items affected during said event. For example, the Water Supply Crisis will cause all water to be more expensive, meaning you can sell at a higher profit, but it wouldn’t really be smart to buy any. Hence why, ideally, it would be best to stock up on items and wait for an event that raises the prices of your stock. The difficulty won’t really change the fluctuations in price percentages in regards to random events, and it pertains more to set regular events such as rent. You also don’t get the same bonuses you usually would.
There are multiple things that can happen during an events:
- Prices for affected items change
- Event customers visit – many events send one extra related customer to your counter every day the event is active
- Requests can appear – some events post faction requests on your store PC
The daily roll (random market events)
Market events are not set in stone, so you can’t predict exactly what you’ll get every day as it’s randomised. However, you can get a general idea based on how many active events you have, or when an event was last on.
Each morning the game may start one random market event:
| Market events already running | Chance of a new one today |
|---|---|
| 0 | 50% |
| 1 | 35% |
| 2 | 25% |
| 3 or more | 0% (hard cap) |
Some things to keep in mind:
- There are no random market events during your first 5 days unless you skip the intro. That is a new-game option.
- Rent days, mortgage days, cartel visits and faction operations count toward the market event cap of 3. Flavor news does not.
- Cooldown – once an event starts, it can’t be rolled again for its duration + its cooldown days.
- If an event that’s already running gets triggered again (for example from a tip), the running one is extended instead.
- If a new event determines a price change the opposite way from an ongoing event, the previous one ends (i.e. Water Supply Surplus ends a running Water Supply Crisis)
Flavour news
Flavour news have no effect gameplay-wise, and they are only there for immersion purposes.
Shortage indicator
The shortage is determined based on all the active modifiers for each category.
- above +30% = shortage
- above +75% = severe shortage
The same thresholds apply in the negative direction for surpluses.
Random Market Events
There are 15 market events. The ones who have the odds of 8.3% are the more common ones, with the other percentages being more rare, “Who Turned Out The Lights?” being the rarest.
| Event (in-game name) | Odds | Lasts | Cooldown | Price effects | Event customer (daily) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Nutrifruit Harvest | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Food +50% | Food Buyer (buys Food, Medical). Also posts a Soup Kitchen request. |
| Nutrifruit Seed Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Food +33%, Seeds +50% | Farmer (buys/sells Seeds) |
| Medical Supplies Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Medical +50% | Pharmacist (buys Medical, Seeds). Also posts 3 Medical Supply requests. |
| Water Supply Crisis | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Water +50%, Water Rations +50%, Beverages +45%, Water Purification +40% | 50/50: Spacer or Corporate Representative |
| Minor Water Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Water +35%, Rations +35%, Beverages +30%, Purification +25% | Lower Level Citizen (water trade) |
| Water Supply Surplus | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Water −25%, Rations −25%, Beverages −20%, Purification −15% | Ice Miner (sells Substances, Materials) |
| Household Item Surplus | (8.3%) | 1 day | 3 | Household Goods −20% | Scavenger (sells) |
| Material Surplus | (8.3%) | 1 day | 3 | Materials −25% | Miner |
| Construction Projects | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Materials +30% | Foreman (buys Materials). Also posts 2 Construction requests. |
| Tourist Influx | (5.6%) | 1 day | 3 | none | Tourist, Station Tourist (weapon souvenirs) or Station Tourist (junk souvenirs) |
| Power Plant Maintenance | (5.6%) | 1 day | 3 | Energy Cells +33% | Lower Level Citizen (buys Energy Cells) |
| Lower Level Lynching | (4.4%) | 1 day | 10 | Weapons, Ammo, Armor +33% | Angry Citizen (buys Weapons, Armor) |
| Power Outage | (3.9%) | 2 days | 3 | Energy Cells +66% | Lower Level Citizen (buys Energy Cells) |
| Oxymore Addiction On The Rise | (3.3%) | 2 days | 5 | Medical +25% | 33% Clinic Volunteer, 22% Desperate Addict, otherwise none |
| Who Turned Out The Lights? | (2.2%) | 2 days | 3 | Energy Cells +50%, Weapons +25%, Ammo +25% | Upper Level Resident (buys Energy Cells), plus 25% chance of a Panicked Shopkeeper (buys Weapons, Armor) |
Blackouts: “Power Outage” and “Who Turned Out The Lights?” cut power to your store (it goes dark). You can get either get the starting perk Makeshift Reactor to ignore the power cut, or by getting the Power Line Hijack network upgrade.
Seed Shortage will stop once the story frees the Nutrifruit seed secret.
Advance Warnings (Tips)
Since the events are randomized, a gameplay mechanic that lets you access information in advance is through tips. They give you information on near future events in three ways:
- the Shady Customer
- “Word on the Street”
- Faction tip perks
Shady Customer (information dealer)
For 50 Credits, the Shady Customer will give you an Intel Slip that counts down to an event, so make sure you have that minimum amount on you at all times. He only starts visiting from day 14 (unless you skipped the intro, in which case he shows up right away), and is guaranteed to visit between 4-7 days.
| Tip | Arrives in | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| Nutrifruit Harvest (Food −20%) | 1–4 days | 2–4 days |
| Bad Nutrifruit Harvest | 3 days | 3 days |
| Medical Supplies Shortage | 1–4 days | 2–4 days |
| Water Supply Crisis | 3 days | 3 days |
| Household Item Surplus | 1 day | 2 days |
| Material Surplus | 1–3 days | 1–2 days |
| Water Supply Surplus | 2 days | 2 days |
Nutrifruit Harvest (Food −20%, 3 days) can only come from tips. It’s never rolled randomly.
“Word on the Street” (Lower Levels reputation 60)
Each morning there’s a 4% chance to get a free Intel Slip for a random market event, arriving in 2–3 days.
Faction tip perks
For faction perks, you need 60 reputation for all of them, which will then reveal operations on your calendar.
- Lower Levels “Word on the Street”
- Security “Trusted”
- Upper Level “Gossipmonger”
- Revolution “Friend of the Revolution”
- Black Market “Underground Network”
Scheduled, Story and Special events
| Event | When | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Rent Due | Every 7 days | Rent payment day. Missing it carries the debt over. |
| Mortgage Payment | Weekly, once you take a mortgage | Mortgage instalment due. |
| Cartel Visit | Cartel storyline | A cartel member visits. |
| Lottery Draw | Every 7th day once the lottery is unlocked (Saturdays) | The newspaper shows the winning number. 3+ matching digits wins; redeem with your lottery representative. |
| Evidence Locker Break-In! | Day 7 (normal intro only) | A Thief comes to sell the stolen evidence crate (Security Department Evidence Locker). Two requests go up for it: Security “Missing Evidence Locker” (+10 rep) or Black Market “Stolen Evidence Locker” (+5 rep, pays more). |
| Meteor Shower | Story event | Materials +50% for 3 days, plus a daily Foreman. Posts Critical Repair (Lower Levels, +10 rep) and Pool Repair (Upper Level, +5 rep) requests for an Engineering Foundry Supply Crate. |
| Lower Level Revolutionary Captured! | After the Wanted target Arthur Lafleur is reported | Newspaper story only. |
| High-Ranking Visiting Admiral Assassinated! | Lou’s storyline | Newspaper story only. |
| Pastel’s Nutrifruit Secret Leaked! | Eleanor’s storyline | Newspaper story. Permanently stops the Seed Shortage event. |
Requests posted by events
For requests, you will have 3 days to deliver, and 4 for the Soup Kitchen event.
Credit reward = base × multiplier × quantity.
| Request | From | Trigger | Deliver | Rep | Credits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medical Supply – Charity Clinic | Lower Levels | Medical Shortage | 3 × Medical Supplies (Common) | +8 | 60 |
| Medical Supply – General Hospital | Upper Level | Medical Shortage | 3 × Medical Supplies (Common) | +3 | 100 |
| Medical Supply – Black Market | Black Market | Medical Shortage | 3 × Medical Supplies (Common) | +3 | 360 |
| Soup Kitchen Supplies | Lower Levels | Bad Harvest | 5 × Peat | +8 | 187 |
| Missing Evidence Locker | Security | Evidence Break-In | 1 × Evidence Locker | +10 | 400 |
| Stolen Evidence Locker | Black Market | Evidence Break-In | 1 × Evidence Locker | +5 | 700 |
| Critical Repair | Lower Levels | Meteor Shower | 1 × Engineering Supply Crate | +10 | 350 |
| Pool Repair | Upper Level | Meteor Shower | 1 × Engineering Supply Crate | +5 | 500 |
| Materials for Lower Level Construction | Lower Levels | Construction Projects | 5 × Scrap Metal | +6 | 75 |
| Construction Supplies | Black Market | Construction Projects | 5 × Scrap Metal | +3 | 100 |
Faction Operations
Factions run operations that act the same as normal market events. You can only access them if you have the specific faction’s tip perk.
| Operation | Faction | Lasts | Price effects | Occurance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increased Weapons Demand | Revolution | 3 days | Weapons, Ammo +25% | Recurring from about day 8 |
| Illegal Weapon Shipment Arrives! | Black Market | 2 days | Weapons, Ammo −35% | Recurring from about day 10. Can’t be seen in advance. |
| Household Aid Distributed! | Upper Level | 2 days | Household Goods −40% | Recurring from early in the run. Can’t be seen in advance. |
| Security Budget Increase | Security | 1 day | none | Once, around day 10 |
| Revolution Mobilization | Revolution | 2 days | Weapons, Ammo, Medical, Armor +40% | |
| Revolution Raid on Upper Level | Revolution | 1 day | Household −30% | |
| Revolution Raid on Security | Revolution | 1 day | Medical +75% | |
| Security Patrols Intensified | Security | 4 days | none | |
| Station-wide Crackdown | Security | 2 days | none (sends a Security Inspector daily) | |
| Black Market Raid | Security | 2 days | Narcotics +50%, Weapons, Ammo +40% | |
| Revolution Hideout Busted | Security | 1 day | none | |
| Martial Law Declared | Security | 3 days | none. Lockdown: cancels riots, raids and mobilizations. | |
| Gang War in the Lower Levels | Black Market | 3 days | Medical +50% | |
| Riots Break Out | Lower Levels | 1 day | Food +30%, Weapons, Ammo +50% | |
| Workers on Strike | Lower Levels | 3 days | Water, Rations, Food +40% | |
| Medical Aid Distributed | Upper Level | 2 days | Medical −25%, Food −10% |
After-Hours Events
Once you unlock the night locations, you can start visiting them after hours. You can either go to the Dumping Ground, or access certain shops such as Dr. Jackson’s. Prices are different depending on the day, and the stores can be closed on certain days, unless you have particular perks. Since you can lose a customer for not going to sleep right away, make sure you use your after hours wisely.
| Event | Location | When | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh Dump | Dumping Ground | Every Wednesday | Junk chance −50% (better finds), injury chance +25% |
| Georgio’s Assistance | Dumping Ground | Georgio offers it on day 15 (not with the Maimed perk): 50 Credits for 3 nights | No injuries, +5 scavenging attempts |
| Closed | Dr. Jackson | Every Monday | Shop closed. Replaced by Special Stock once you own Monday’s Special Stock. |
| Special Stock | Dr. Jackson | Every Monday (needs the Monday’s Special Stock upgrade, 1250 cr) | Rare stock available, prices +150% |
| Discount | Dr. Jackson | Every Sunday | Prices −10% |
| Fresh Restock | Commissary | Every Friday | Restocks to 35% of max stock |
| Burglary | Commissary | After you buy from a Food Thief | Reduced Commissary stock: the thief’s loot came off its shelves |
